Forecast horizon — calibration-scored at resolution.
By 2028, antibody-drug conjugates (T-DXd class) will have largely displaced T-DM1 as second-line HER2+ metastatic therapy.
TL;DR · AI-generated
T-DM1 significantly prolonged progression-free and overall survival with less toxicity than lapatinib plus capecitabine in patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer previously treated with trastuzumab and a taxane.
Your probability this resolves TRUE
0% (impossible)
50%
100% (certain)
Proper-scoring-rule preview
Your position is kept on this device until you sign in.
Evidence stream
2 events · 1 snapshot
posterior drift
71% → 71% (0pp · 1 point)
Registry data
Apr 18, 2026
Peer-reviewed paper
Apr 18, 2026
Expert reactions · 0
Sign in to post a take, cite a related claim, or flag a methodological concern.
No reactions yet. Be the first expert to post a take, cite a related claim, or flag a methodological concern.
Source publication
Trastuzumab Emtansine for HER2-Positive Advanced Breast Cancer
Sunil Verma et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2012
· openalex W2159967578 · s2 c1be35f9
Semantically related
Nearest claims in the expert-corpus vector space. Ordered by cosine distance — lower is closer.
0.1921
By 2028, aducanumab will have been withdrawn or deprioritized in favor of later anti-amyloid agents with cleaner efficacy signals.
0.2016
By 2028, CDK4/6 inhibitors will remain standard first-line for HR+/HER2− metastatic breast cancer; resistance-overcoming agents (e.g., AKT/PI3K) will be layered on top.
0.2119
The EMILIA trial's stated primary conclusion — T-DM1 improves progression-free and overall survival vs. lapatinib+capecitabine in HER2+ advanced breast cancer. — replicates in independent cohorts.
0.2343
By 2028, pembrolizumab-containing regimens will be first-line for >90% of eligible metastatic non-squamous NSCLC in US practice.
0.2363
By 2028, neoadjuvant checkpoint inhibition will be standard-of-care for stage II–III TNBC across major oncology guidelines.
0.2470
By 2028, oral CGRP antagonists will be first-line preventive therapy for episodic migraine, surpassing beta-blockers in new prescriptions.